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Ray Russell

Mark Twain said, “Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.”

Clearly, the iconic writer was convinced of weather’s unpredictability. But then again, Mark Twain never met Ray Russell.

In the past 10 years, Russell has turned a part-time hobby into a daily passion—and an amateur weather prediction into one of the region’s most trusted sources for accurate short- and long-range forecasts. But he’s not your average meteorologist.

In fact, he’s not a meteorologist at all.

Russell’s fascination with weather began in adolescence, when a snow-covered ground translated to a day off from school. The welcome escape inspired a tireless quest for knowledge.

Over the years, Russell buried himself in meteorology texts, learning the scientific side of weather prediction. And in 1996, the computer science professor at Appalachian State University began writing a snow forecast and hosting it on the school web site. Encouraging his interest, Russell’s wife gave him a weather station in 1998. Two years later, with the help of a local newspaper story, the web site took off. In fact, it garnered so much attention that it had to be moved from the university’s web site to one all its own.

And with that, RaysWeather.com was born.

RaysWeather.com is now Western North Carolina’s most widely read media outlet and has doubled in visitation every year. In fact, in 2006 Russell predicted his site received more than 4 million hits—many from snow enthusiasts looking for the perfect days to ski and snowboard.

“People have come to rely on our forecast,” Russell says. “They come to our site because we make the tougher calls. We make detailed predictions in advance—which is something many forecasters don’t attempt to do. But we predict it like we see it. We call it ‘forecasting without a net.’”

And it’s this boldness that sets RaysWeather.com forecasts apart from those of traditional meteorologists—as well as the fact that Russell’s predictions are made while sitting behind a computer screen.

“We pull data from roughly a dozen computer models, as well as two subscription-only meteorology web sites,” Russell says. “We also receive good surface data from more than 25 weather stations across Western North Carolina.”

One of these stations—a certified National Weather Service station—is located at Fred’s Mercantile atop Beech Mountain and has seen the lion’s share of activity over the years. Nearly every year, the more-than-a-mile-high town sees almost twice the snowfall of others in the region.

“We have seen snow on Beech Mountain every month but August,” said Fred Pfohl, owner of Fred’s Mercantile. He remembers one particular Memorial Day when shorts-wearing visitors found themselves in the middle of a serious snowstorm.

Some snowstorms—like the infamous March Blizzard of 1993—have been known to drop four feet of snow at a time. Since then, the single-season record for snow came in 1996, when more than 10 feet of snow covered the ground. “Beech Mountain could lay claim to being the ‘snow capital of the Southeast,’” admits Russell. “Mt. Mitchell and Clingman’s Dome could probably say they get more snow, but Beech is the place where people live.”

But even though accumulation totals vary widely between towns in the area, the accuracy of Russell’s predictions speaks for itself. Even in his long-range winter forecast (dubbed “Ray’s Fearless Forecast” for its unflinching audacity), Ray typically predicts within inches of the exact total.

“(Last year) I forecasted 50” of snow in Boone…and 100”+ at Beech. We had 35” to 40” in Boone…and 99” on Beech.”

Not bad for a prediction made months in advance. But Russell maintains his modesty.

“I graded it a C+,” he says.

So what does Russell see in the future for RaysWeather.com?

“We’ll be including topographic maps and other graphic resources for site visitors. Our area will soon cover from Sparta to Wolf Laurel utilizing more than 25 separate weather stations. The goal is to cover all of Western North Carolina.

“It takes a lot of work, but it has its rewards—providing a needed service, as well as watching something become as big as this has,” says Russell. “We now have eight people (including three professional meteorologists) involved with the site—and it all started as a hobby in my backyard.”